Well it is the spring season and the chase departure day is quickly approaching!

It’s never easy organizing trips like these because you always end up planning them months in advance and you’re really working on climatology. It’s not easy to guess whether the beginning or end of May will be the “best time” and ocean signals only go so far, a sudden blocking ridge that shuts down the plains is possible even if ocean patterns suggest it is unlikely months in advance.

This year I’ll be heading down as the team navigator & forecaster once again. Maryann Williams will be driver (she’s a little insane) and was kind enough to lend her vehicle as the chase car. Our friend Neil Ellis from New Zealand will be joining us and we’ll have a new companion, a professional photographer Matthew Breiter from Minnesota.

I wasn’t able to head down for the 2018 season in part due to my wedding and work obligations that simply did not spare me the time. But this year will be different and the trip is booked as of March.

The CFS outlook for May

Getting into the models, the CFS predictions of a major western trough which continued for much of the winter, through March and April seem to be coming to fruition. The CFS thus far, and even with the weekly data, continues to show an amplified western trough for most of May with an emphasis on the latter half of the month.

The plan is to head down for the second half of May leaving on the 17th and returning at the beginning of June just as the death ridge starts to build in over the plains and cap off the more major activity.