Posts in Category: Tornado Alley

May 19th 2019 – Childress, Texas

Okay quick short long update…. hahaha I know it makes no sense!

So we started the day in Woodward, OK and it was nice to finally sleep in catch up on some much needed and missing sleep. We decided a late checkout was best. In an interesting twist, we booked the room well in advance and it turns out Greg Johnson and his chase tour were staying at the same Super8 in Woodward.

Look a funnel… NOT

It was nice to meet Greg again and I also got to see Chris Chittick again, the last time we truly spoke at any length was at a gas station just south of El Reno in 2010 when he was with Reed Timmer in the Dominator. I also got to meet a few other twitter users who I regularly engage with including Jade and Randy. So we hung out a little at night and I took this selfie the next morning before we headed off to our target hotel in Childress, Tx.

Cleaning the Ford Expedition

MaryAnn made sure we cleaned the chase car! She can be a little OCD and the fact it was covered in dirt and mud spatter from the previous days chase was killing her. So a quick was resolved that issue for the time being. After the wash, MaryAnn was in communication with Kathryn & Dave, two fellow chasers from Chatham Ontario that I’ve never met in person, who were also in Woodward. We all met at the local Braum’s Ice Cream shop and had lunch, it was a pleasure to meet Kathryn & Dave in person.

After lunch, it was southward to Childress. It was a nice pleasant drive that brought us through Wheeler Texas, a little town which I’ve been through many times and ironically is the setting for a movie of which I’m the executive produce (Sixty Minutes to Midnight). Our director Neil Mackay had never actually been to Wheeler in person so I made sure to send him some quick photos showing this his pre-production research had paid off.

Wheeler Texas

Once we landed in Childress, we did the usual stuff, hit the store and grab some food. We actually booked out hotel at around 11:30AM before we had even left the Super 8 in Woodward, and it was good that we did. The hotel actually had chasers when we arrived at 5PM and by 8PM the place was an absolute zoo, which was a good thing. I ran into several chasers who I’ve spoken with over the years and then had the opportunity to meet a legend in the chase community, David Hoadley.

David Hoadley posing for a selfie

David was the original founder of Storm Track Magazine and essentially is known as the first recognize storm chaser. He essentially started it all as a professional photographer and has written about the ethics of chasing, photographing storms and many things over the years. In many ways he is a true legend within the community and I’m overjoyed to actually meet him in person. We had a brief 10 minute discussion and he was a wonderful person to talk to. He is also such a wealth of knowledge it is just phenomenal.

Now on to the serious stuff… tomorrow is a serious day. While I storm chase to see the amazing power of nature which is just mesmerizing there is the reality that things on high risk days can get out of hand quickly. My focus will be on the safety of our group, and to make educated, safe and intelligent choices to help us find out way to any potential tornadoes and do so without getting in trouble. Likewise MaryAnn will have the responsibility of safely driving the vehicle even in potentially adverse conditions. Safety is priority one, which means eyes on the road and eyes on skies. When there are this many chasers in a potentially small areas people do silly things and collisions, which can be serious are a possibility. Our goal is to avoid any such issues.

There is another thing storm chasers sometimes forget. On days where the risk is high and large long track tornadoes are expected, there is a high likelihood some people will lose their homes, properties and potentially their life. This is something I do not take lightly. I have witnessed enough devastating tornadoes to know what happens, I have seen enough communities wiped off to map to know the pain such devastation these events cause. I absolutely, do not wish for a tornado, I do not wish for anyone to get harmed. As a chaser, I’m going out there to see nature, I can’t stop it, I can perfectly predict it and I don’t with such devastation upon anyone. As a group there is an understanding that if we come upon tornado damage, we will render assistance as best as we can and we pray that people who may be in the path of these storms are spared any destruction.or loss.

So with that said, it weighs heavy on me knowing that tornado may be a day that changes some peoples lives and I hope that I’m wrong but fear that I will not be.

May 18th 2019 – Woodward, Oklahoma

Started the day off with tornado warnings to our south in Texas as a line of storms went up. We spent the night in Miami, Oklahoma east of Oklahoma.

We targeted Woodward early on and chased a few storms very briefly as we punched through the MCS / QLCS that was expanding north from southern parts of Oklahoma and North Texas. Despite a couple brief mesocyclones showing up on radar the storms lacked any serious surface interaction.

After some fine tuning we ended up in Waynoka and watched the storms initiating literally over the town.

The storms looked good initially but it became apparent pretty quickly that the energy.values had been over estimated and the storms lacked good mid level and upper support despite low level wind fields and even the surface flow supporting discrete supercells.

We watched a few storms, one which became photogenic and even had to wolf down dinner as a storm with a couplet blew through.


Heading to Woodward for the night, update with photos to follow.

May 17th 2019 – Ontario, Canada

Well it’s here, departure day!

I only got about two hours of sleep last night and hit the road at 5AM.

I met with MaryAnn at 7:50AM at her place in Strathroy, loaded out her vehicle and we’re now on the road in Michigan heading to the airport to grab Neil and Matt.

No destination target yet. I’ll begin working on that shortly!

May 14th 2019 – Toronto, Ontario

So I’m at the point now where I’m packed for the most part and here’s what I’ve learned over the years.

I have always habitually over packed, and it arises from the fear of needing something I may not normally bring. When chasing at home or locally I bring all of my lenses, 4 DSLR cameras and two or three video cameras. It may seem like overkill but I have had cameras go down at the least opportune times and having a backup has served as a remedy to this. Also, bringing all my lenses means I can do anything whether it be macro or super-telephoto, even artsy fisheye stuff is fair game.

The lens collection

What I’ve come to discover over time is that for tornado alley trips, I really don’t need the majority off the stuff I bring. It ends up just becoming a slog fest where it feels like I’m moving everyday with pelican cases, backpacks and the like. At the end of a long chase day the last thing you want to do is move stuff when you’re mentally and physically exhausted, and this is on top of the fact that batteries need to be charged and memory cards need to be cleared. I’m also burdened with the task of figuring out the next target. So the last thing I want to do is move a bunch stuff.

I’ve come to discover that on these trips I really just use the workhorse equipment. The two lenses I fallback on are the Canon 11-24mm ultra-wide and 70-200mm telephoto. In years past I’ve brought everything, and I mean everything including the 800mm which is just overkill. From a practicality point of view, because of haze and atmospheric distortion, you can’t really zoom in past 200mm, there’s simply too much clutter in the air, so for tornadoes and storms anything beyond the reach of a 200mm lens is impractical. In an ideal world the 24-70mm should also be on my list but the reality is that I rarely use this lens with storms, everything is either ultrawide or zoomed in. I have found the 24-70 is good for lightning, but it tends to be most useful towards the upper end in the 50-70mm range. So I’m still unsure as to whether it’ll be coming along.

When it comes to video, I just rely on two cameras, the Sony AX100 which is a beautiful camcorder, and the Sony A7RII which is phenomenal in all conditions. The camcorder sits on the dash but can quickly be put on a tripod. It offers all the features and function of a video camera which is important because trying to make a DSLR a video camera is painful, and having a built in zoom with a rocker servo and momentary auto-focus are sometimes very important. The A7RII on the other hand is a DSLR but for the chase trip I leave it fitted with a Canon 16-35mm wide angle lens and it just shoots beautiful wide shots of storms.

Here’s the problem ultimately with having and bringing too much gear – despite what you think you can do in your head, the physical reality is very different. In 2010 for example while a nice cone tornado dropped from the sky in Watonga OK I was so busy trying to operate 4 cameras I did not really enjoy it all that much. It’s a physical impossibility to shoot with two DSLR’s and keep track of two video cameras at the same time. On later trips I tried to just leave GoPro’s going all the time but then you end up wasting memory, and their lenses get dirty. In the end you don’t really pay attention to any specific camera, and what you get is poor quality content. It’s better to just focus on one or two things and not worry about a plethora of gear.

Cone tornado in Watonga, OK – May 2010

The other issue to consider is loadout and how that affects your ability to safely observe. There are many situations where you simply do not have much time at one location and every second you spend unloading photo and video gear is one less second you have to use it and one more second you have to spend putting it back in the vehicle. So ultimately, you cut down your observing time and if you underestimate the amount of time needed to pack up and run, it’s easy to get into real trouble, and it’s a lot harder to get out of trouble than it is to get into it.

May 13th 2019 – Vaughan, Ontario

Just a couple things to share.

But first i’ll start with a story from earlier this morning…

I stopped at a local Walmart for some socks and a couple pieces of clothing. It was a miserably rainy day so I dawned my waterproof shell, headed out and did the shopping. I then drove some 40 km north of the city to my mechanic for a quick oil change. My intent was to leave the car and take the subway back downtown so I would arrive at work on time.

Everything was fine, arrived at my mechanic in Concord (Vaughan) without issue. My mom had called and offered to drive me to the subway station to save me a 15 minute bus ride.

She arrived and it was then, as I transferred my work related items to her car that I realized my wallet had vanished!

I quickly checked my mechanics shop, then called the Wal-Mart in Etobicoke near Sherway gardens… nothing, no wallets had been turned in.

I was pretty panicked and frustrated at this point. I asked my mom to drive me back to the plaza parking lot, I had an inkling it had fallen out of my jacket as I hopped into the driver seat of my SUV.

About 20 minutes later I was back where I had started. I headed in to Wal-Mart and just then I saw it on the customer desk behind the counter! It was soaking wet but together, and I really don’t carry cash and in this case there was none lost but I didn’t care, it was my license and health card I was concerned about. The Walmart employee told me it had just been dropped off by someone who found it in the parking lot.

I can tell you, that’s one hell of a way to start the morning! What a relief and my lesson has been learned, I’m bolting this wallet to my forehead!!!

I’m so thankful whoever turned the wallet in did so, I can’t thank them enough!

Turning towards weather and chasing, Maryann has installed a rather large hail guard to protect the moon roof (moon roofs are basically giant sunroofs because… the moon is bigger than the sun??? No idea why they’re called that).

This will be a huge help, hail is always a battle, I do my very best to not put the vehicle through any sizeable hail but it’s not always easy and sometimes things go south and there’s simply no escape. The windshield is the most resilient and easily repairable glass in the vehicle. It’ll take a lot to break it. The moonroof is about the worst thing to break, it’ll expose everyone to the outer elements, have the vehicle interior soaked along with gear and prove a considerable setback. So having a hail guard prevents us from losing our roof.

I’ve also put in a rush order for an Inspeed anemometer, I already have one unit, but a second will serve as an important backup.

GFS afternoon 2M temperature forecast – May 17th

In other news, I’m happy to report that the GFS is continuing to bump up temperatures, we might not really need our sweaters after all, looks like the warm air will make a solid push deep into SW Ontario, so aside from a cool morning, the rest of the day Friday looks warm and sunny.!

May 12th 2019 – Toronto, Ontario

With just over 3 days remaining, the final push to prepare, sort and pack for the trip is underway.

There have already been multiple tornado outbreaks of varying scales in the southern plains.

Cape Forecast – Sunday May 19th 2019

As much as I hate looking at operational model runs for convective events days to weeks in advance, the GFS, CMC and ECMWF have been in general agreement showing a very active and prolonged multi-day severe weather episode unfolding. It’s a repeating pattern, one after the other back and forth from west to east until the end of the month before ridging begins building in.

While this storm forecast is important, a more immediate and pressing matter to deal with is the clothing forecast for the drive down. Silly as this may sound many storm chasers, especially those coming from Northern climates tend to dress inappropriately, either wearing too much, too little or not dawning transitional clothing. It’s easy to assume it’ll be hot at the final destination but the weather on the way there is often cool and unsettled.

The GFS 2M temperature forecast for the afternoon of Friday May 17th 2019

So for the first leg of the journey Friday it looks like spring wear, once we get deeper into Illinois we’ll finally transition into summer like weather as far as heat and humidity go.

After the dreary spring weather here in Southern Ontario and a painful lack of warm fronts, I’m ready for some sunshine and heat!

May 1st 2019 – Vaughan, Ontario

Well it is the spring season and the chase departure day is quickly approaching!

It’s never easy organizing trips like these because you always end up planning them months in advance and you’re really working on climatology. It’s not easy to guess whether the beginning or end of May will be the “best time” and ocean signals only go so far, a sudden blocking ridge that shuts down the plains is possible even if ocean patterns suggest it is unlikely months in advance.

This year I’ll be heading down as the team navigator & forecaster once again. Maryann Williams will be driver (she’s a little insane) and was kind enough to lend her vehicle as the chase car. Our friend Neil Ellis from New Zealand will be joining us and we’ll have a new companion, a professional photographer Matthew Breiter from Minnesota.

I wasn’t able to head down for the 2018 season in part due to my wedding and work obligations that simply did not spare me the time. But this year will be different and the trip is booked as of March.

The CFS outlook for May

Getting into the models, the CFS predictions of a major western trough which continued for much of the winter, through March and April seem to be coming to fruition. The CFS thus far, and even with the weekly data, continues to show an amplified western trough for most of May with an emphasis on the latter half of the month.

The plan is to head down for the second half of May leaving on the 17th and returning at the beginning of June just as the death ridge starts to build in over the plains and cap off the more major activity.

Tornado Alley Blog

May 25th 2017 – Vaughan, Ontario

We’re safely back and the chase is over! What a year, there was plenty of down time but when the storms came in waves, they certainly produced and we had a very successful trip with numerous tornadoes, and beautiful storm structure!

 

April 30th 2017 – Kansas City, Kansas

What a night. What started with a cold early morning commute, ended with us spinning in circles after chasing a weak line of storms on the IL/MO border. The storms were actually linear in nature but developing in a weak energy environment with favorable low level shear for vorticity. One of the storms produced a brief tornado as we approached from the west, but we were unable get into position in time for it to be visible however several storm reports confirmed it.

Our next target is Woodward Oklahoma for a possible chase Tuesday afternoon near the Panhandle.

April 21st 2017 – Vaughan, Ontario

Well, it’s that time of year again and preparations are underway for this years tornado alley excursion. This trip unlike others which were solo runs with only my fiancée and I will actually include three other chasers. Two fellow chasers from Southern Ontario and one from New Zealand. In addition our trip will run from April 28th to approximately May 20th and will hopefully provide us with an opportunity to explore the beautiful landscapes of the American west and the absolutely stunning skies above.

While still early, the prognosis from the ECMWF weekly ensembles suggest a quick start, followed by intermittent storms that will give way to a major pacific long-wave towards the middle of May. Current climate trends indicate we will see more of a late May type pattern as opposed to a traditional early may pattern.

Declare Your Guns

ECMWF MSLP Control Valid 03/05

Unfortunately the smaller mesoscale features which often arise such as front range convection which exists in areas such as DVCZ and near the Palmer Divide are not resolved in the longer range models. So while there is an apparent lull with the larger synoptic meteorology, we do expect there will be storms on apparent off days. Further into the future, the day 15 data which is the end of the observable run suggest a large pacific trough will likely make its way into the plains around May 9th or 10th and possibly trigger a couple high-risk storm days.

ECMWF Weekly – 15D Control 500 hPa

With that said, the forecast at this point will likely change a great deal so be sure to keep checking this blog for updates. I’ll do my best to post daily, nightly and even some rel-time reports once the trip begins.

May 22nd 2016

Surface analysis 21Z Sun May 22 2016

Surface analysis 21Z Sun May 22 2016

May 16th 2016

What a great first chase day! It’s amazing how variable the weather can be. Just the day before it was cold, miserable and downright chilly, but all that changed a great deal in the Texas and Okalhoma panhandle where a system swinging through set the stage for some cold deep convection. Video is at the bottom of the post. Enjoy!

Surface analysis 21Z Mon May 16 2016

Surface analysis 21Z Mon May 16 2016

Tornado Alley Blog – 2016

April 30th 2017 – Kansas City, Kansas

What a night. What started with a cold early morning commute, ended with us spinning in circles after chasing a weak line of storms on the IL/MO border. The storms were actually linear in nature but developing in a weak energy environment with favorable low level shear for vorticity. One of the storms produced a brief tornado as we approached from the west, but we were unable get into position in time for it to be visible however several storm reports confirmed it.

Our next target is Woodward Oklahoma for a possible chase Tuesday afternoon near the Panhandle.

April 21st 2017 – Vaughan, Ontario

Well, it’s that time of year again and preparations are underway for this years tornado alley excursion. This trip unlike others which were solo runs with only my fiancée and I will actually include three other chasers. Two fellow chasers from Southern Ontario and one from New Zealand. In addition our trip will run from April 28th to approximately May 20th and will hopefully provide us with an opportunity to explore the beautiful landscapes of the American west and the absolutely stunning skies above.

While still early, the prognosis from the ECMWF weekly ensembles suggest a quick start, followed by intermittent storms that will give way to a major pacific long-wave towards the middle of May. Current climate trends indicate we will see more of a late May type pattern as opposed to a traditional early may pattern.

Declare Your Guns

ECMWF MSLP Control Valid 03/05

Unfortunately the smaller mesoscale features which often arise such as front range convection which exists in areas such as DVCZ and near the Palmer Divide are not resolved in the longer range models. So while there is an apparent lull with the larger synoptic meteorology, we do expect there will be storms on apparent off days. Further into the future, the day 15 data which is the end of the observable run suggest a large pacific trough will likely make its way into the plains around May 9th or 10th and possibly trigger a couple high-risk storm days.

ECMWF Weekly – 15D Control 500 hPa

With that said, the forecast at this point will likely change a great deal so be sure to keep checking this blog for updates. I’ll do my best to post daily, nightly and even some rel-time reports once the trip begins.

June 14th 2016 – Vaughan, Ontario

Now that I’ve been back home for a while, I’ve had time to sort though the thousands of photos. This has been, without any question or doubt, the absolute best chase trip to the alley I’ve ever had since I started going down in the 2000’s.

I’ve put together a small gallery with some of my highlights from the trip and hopefully I’ll have all the chase logs up soon before I get too busy with the summer chase season here in Southern Ontario.

May 27th 2016 – Kansas City, Kansas

And the long 2300 km drive home begins! Oh, apparently you need to declare your guns at the border 🙂

Declare Your Guns

Declare Your Guns

May 26th 2016 – Kansas City, Kansas

This was a moderate risk day with fairly high tornado odds. The only problem was that there was simply too much instability and it was a mesoscale nightmare with outflow boundaries, waves and all sorts of stuff all over the place! Convection from the night before really made everything a mess!

Kinsley, Kansas Storm

Kinsley, Kansas Storm

The storms that did go up quickly turned into a line or a cluster and became outflow dominated quickly. I don’t think anyone had a successful chase anywhere even remotely close to the target areas. It was a yuck day!

Weak storm near Dodge City

Weak storm near Dodge City

After the morning and early afternoon mess, clearing and sunshine allowed a couple of storms to go up in western Kansas and Oklahoma near the dryline. Unfortunately from a chase perspective, this was way west of the best shear vectors and the storms were very linear.

Storm with limited rotation attempting to become a supercell

Storm with limited rotation attempting to become a supercell

This storm north of Dodge City Kansas near Jetmore wanted to spin but it just could not pull itself together and the daylight began to fade quickly.

Ellinwood Kansas Lightning

Ellinwood Kansas Lightning

Later that night we had some wonderful lightning along a nocturnal MCS that developed from the western convection and with that, my 2016 trip comes to a close!

May 25th 2016 – Wichita, Kansas

Bahhhhhhh!!! One of those days, I played the dryline and it totally screwed me! Should have stuck with the boundary to the north or bailed sooner. This cell (as forecast) popped up right where it was supposed to.

Storm east of Wichita

Storm east of Wichita

But then, just as it began to build, the unthinkable happened.

LP Storm - Pontiac Kansas

LP Storm – Pontiac Kansas

It shriveled up into a LP storm and eventually totally dried up and went bye bye. BAHHHH!!! Meanwhile just as this was happening the storm to the north was wrapping up to produce a wedge tornado. A saw a couple closer storms that looked healthy firing up near the Oklahoma border and bailed south.

Vernon Kansas LP Storm

Vernon Kansas LP Storm

Of course, as I arrived… it too went super LP and started to go bye-bye! What a frustrating day! Congratulations to all the chasers who clearly made the better call and headed north. Wish I had made that call too and bailed sooner. Ah well, I won’t make that mistake twice!

Tomorrow looks like a north central Kansas kind of day. Several boundaries receding and a warm front pushing north, so it’ll be one head of a day to watch the surface observations. Initial data suggests we could see another repeat with large violent tornadoes possible.

WRF-NAM Crossover

WRF-NAM Crossover

May 25th 2016 – Pratt, Kansas

Just a quick morning update, target today is a little east of Pratt. Still recovering from yesterday! Here are a couple more photos.

Three Tornadoes - Dodge City Kansas

Three Tornadoes – Dodge City Kansas

Truck Blown Over & Tornado - Dodge City Kansas

Truck Blown Over & Tornado – Dodge City Kansas

Truck Blown Over - Dodge City Kansas

Truck Blown Over – Dodge City Kansas

The driver of the semi-truck was okay and thankfully there not too much damage to structures around the outer perimeter of the city. Of course a few places did take direct hits sadly.

May 24th 2016 – Pratt, Kansas

I don’t know where to begin, but this was probably the best chase day I’ve ever had. This morning I was fearful that Dodge City would possibly be in the path of a large tornado and it sure just barely dodged a bullet this afternoon!

It was a long day and I’ve lost count of how many tornadoes there were. The storm which spawned the tornadoes exploded in an area of incredible wind shear and some 40 minutes after initiation it produced its first tornado and then continued cycling & producing funnel after funnel.

Kansas Tornado 9

Kansas Tornado 9

Kansas Tornado 8

Kansas Tornado 8

Kansas Tornado 7

Kansas Tornado 7

Kansas Tornado 6

Kansas Tornado 6

Kansas Storm & Wall Cloud

Kansas Storm & Wall Cloud

Kansas Wall Cloud

Kansas Wall Cloud

Kansas Tornado 5

Kansas Tornado 5

Kansas Tornado 4

Kansas Tornado 4

Kansas Tornado 3

Kansas Tornado 3

Kansas Tornado 2

Kansas Tornado 2

Kansas Tornado 1

Kansas Tornado 1

May 22nd 2016 – Canadian, Texas

How fitting that we;re spending the night in Canadian Texas! What a day! It was a long drive back to the Texas Panhandle from Colby Kansas and after a couple hours of frustration with the storms things finally paid off in spades! I had originally targeted Perryton TX after a very tough forecast call this morning. It was faced with either going north of falling back south and I decided the northern Panhandle was the best shot.

Cone Tornado - Olchitree County Texas

Cone Tornado – Olchitree County Texas

After arriving in Perryton the storm I was targeting was knocked around and beat up by a number of other cells. The road network also gave me some grief since it did not give me a safe viable means to get into the right part of the storm without getting cored. Finally I took the long way around and ended up right in hook of the storm as the higher sheer values from the west migrated through and kicked the storm into high gear! It became a cyclic HP tornado producer quickly.

Large Tornado - Cone Tornado - Olchitree County Texas

Large Tornado – Olchitree County Texas

We were in the right spot just as it produced this rather large tornado and several smaller tornadoes!

Moderate Cone Tornado - Cone Tornado - Olchitree County Texas

Moderate Cone Tornado – Olchitree County Texas

Can’t say much more other than it was a chase day that totally panned out after a fair bit of aggravation!

May 21st 2016 – Colby, Kansas

Thunderstorm Anvil - Kansas

Thunderstorm Anvil – Kansas

We hit the road bright and early ready to drive the 450 kilometers from Amarillo to Lakin which was my forecast target. It was sure a rush to wait ordeal! Finally, at around 4:30PM the dryline inching west from Colorado began to push up storms in Kansas.

Skinny Funnel Cloud - Logan County Kansas

Skinny Funnel Cloud – Logan County Kansas

The storm of the day was actually only 20 miles from my target and the very next town north of Lakin known as Leoti. The supercell did produce a brief tornado and many smaller rope funnel clouds such as the one above.

Supercell Thunderstorm - Skinny Funnel Cloud - Logan County Kansas

Supercell Thunderstorm – Logan County Kansas

The storm eventually became a beautifully sculpted supercell, except it was barely moving, the forward motion was something like 2 miles per hour if that. Good for chasing, bad for tornadoes since it was just building a gigantic outflow pool underneath.

Ragged Funnel - Supercell Thunderstorm - Skinny Funnel Cloud - Logan County Kansas

Ragged Funnel – Logan County Kansas

Here’s another ragged funnel that was produced but never amounted to anything.

Sculpted Supercell - Leoti KS

Sculpted Supercell – Leoti KS

As the evening continuing the wind shear profiles in the atmosphere became more pronounced and the storm took on a beautifully sculpted structure!

Supercell Lightning -Russel Springs Kansas

Supercell Lightning -Russel Springs Kansas

As even turned to dusk, I focused on getting as many lightning photos as I could! A new storm exploded to the north near Russel Springs and provided a wonderful light show.

Supercell Lightning & Flash Flooding

Supercell Lightning & Flash Flooding

I only ran into one little hiccup. While taking these lightning photos, the bridge behind me wash out and the road in front of me flooded! I had to wait a little while for the water to finally recede but it did and we spent the night in Colby Kansas.

May 20th 2016 – Amarillo, Texas

As we were leaving Tucumcari we stopped to look at this hill. I was thinking about venturing a drive to the top but then realized with 4×4 it was not a good idea!

Mountain near Tucumcari NM

Mountain near Tucumcari NM

We continued on our way east to Amarillo Texas and stopped at the cadillac ranch!

Painting At The Cadillac Ranch

Painting At The Cadillac Ranch

I tried my hand at some very bad painting!

Cadillac Ranch

Cadillac Ranch

Line of buried Cadillacs

Line of buried Cadillacs

Jen and myself at the ranch

Jen and myself at the ranch

After the ranch we checked into the Days Inn and then headed over to the Big Texas for some steak! I’ll post those photos later!!!

Looking ahead to tomorrow it looks like a potentially serious day across extreme western Kansas. There is incredible run to run consistency between the WRF-NAM and the SREF. Both sets of models continue to show a very high risk for a single discrete storm on a moisture axis with strong forcing and an impinging dryline.

WRF-NAM 00Z Echo Tops

WRF-NAM 00Z Echo Tops

If everything the NAM is showing turns out to be true, it will be a hell of storm in Kanses. Right now SIG TOR and Supercell composite indices are off the chart, the environmentals are just insane. Tomorrow it’s going to be an early morning, lot’s of analysis and 3-4 hours of driving.

May 20th 2016 – Tucumcari, New Mexico

Today looks like the last down day, moisture returns to the high plains Saturday morning and by late afternoon there should be storms, some of which may become supercells along the developing dryline that will surge east out of New Mexico.

CAPE 850/500 Crossover

CAPE 850/500 Crossover

The best shear as forecast is expected to be towards the northern periphery of the moisture nose. Unfortunately the dryline runs the risk of undercutting whatever storms form there and then there is the issue of available energy which is quite small in Kansas compared to the Texas Panhandle and Oklahoma.

Two Meter Moisture

Two Meter Moisture

Here’s another example showing the available moisture in the 2 meter dewpoints. The moisture is more spread out in Texas\Western Oklahoma but rapidly falls-off beyond the moist axis in western Kansas. This means whatever storms do form in Kansas might run into moisture issues, especially if they’re able to get out ahead of the dryline. While any storms ahead of the dryline further south will be running into much better moisture fields and likely hold on longer. The other thing is that expected LCL’s will be lower and more conducive to tornadoes in Oklahoma. However the issue is that the best shear is currently forecast to remain in Kansas so it really is a catch-22 at the moment.

May 19th 2016 – Tucumcari, New Mexico

What do you do when there are no storms???!!!! You visit all the tourist attractions!!! Since we’re in New Mexico and not too far from Roswell it was only right to go alien hunting and visit the infamous town known for the 1947 alleged UFO crash incident.

Welcome to Roswell

Welcome to Roswell

I wont lie, I’m not a big believer in the conspiracy theories and I have serious doubts about the validity of the whole incident but it’s still fun to visit.

Roswell Welcome Banner

Roswell Welcome Banner

Wandering around inside the museum I was greeted by 4 alien and had to call some friends to tell them!

Look at those aliens!!

Look aliens!

I would have loved to have visited the Trinity Test Site (first nuclear detonation) but it was some 280 kilometers off course and truth be told there is not much to see. They actually allow you into the blast area a few times a year and I was not sure if I would be allowed in. If not, it would be a distant look at an empty plain which has been long overgrown by shrubs. Apparently, for those who have been at ground zero, there is still plenty of radioactive glass from the melted sand and other neat effects that remain visible in the environment.

Roswell Museum

Roswell Museum

May 18th 2016 – Carlsbad, New Mexico

We spent much of the day driving and took our time leaving Texas and ugh… finding an oil filter (long story there).

I attempted to intercept a couple storms that rolled off the high elevation Sierra Madre Oriental mountains in Mexico near the Texas border but there was virtually no boundary layer moisture in the lower elevation land east of the Rio Grande. So whatever storms did form could only survive a short distance before they became only orphan anvils. We decided to head to Carlsbad New Mexico for the night so we can visit Roswell and do some UFO stuff before heading north towards Colorado.

Van Horn Mountains, TX

Van Horn Mountains, TX

This part of extreme western Texas I hadn’t really visited before so it was very new and I found the geography of the landscape with plateaus, flat top mountains and high elevation deserts very fascinating. We stopped all along the way to Carlsbad to take pictures.

Mountains near Van Horn, TX

Mountains near Van Horn, TX


The ranches in this area are also huge rivaling New Mexico and Wyoming in sheer size!

Rainbow somewhere in Culberson County, TX

Rainbow somewhere in Culberson County, TX

We were also treated to a rainbow and an orphan anvil / remnant storm passing over Guadalupe Peak near Pine Springs.

Guadalupe Peak, Texas

Guadalupe Peak, Texas

Perhaps the coolest thing of the entire day was the rolling cloud bank from the saturated airmass as the storm rolled over head of Pine Springs.

Rolling cloud bank near Pine Springs, TX

Rolling cloud bank near Pine Springs, TX

May 17th 2016 – Sonora, Texas (evening)

Long day, lot’s of storms, no tornadoes thank to a major lack of upper dynamics but some pretty supercells.

Mammatus clouds in Sonora Texas

Mammatus clouds in Sonora Texas

Supercell behind a flattop rock in Perico, Texas

Supercell behind a flattop rock in McCamey, Texas

Beautiful supercell near McCamey Texas

Beautiful supercell near McCamey Texas

May 17th 2016 – Amarillo, Texas

Brrrr, it is freezing here in the Texas Panhandle! Looks like we have a 4 1/2 hour drive south to escape the cold pool, and remnant outflow from yesterdays convection here in Amarillo.

GrEarth

Current surface analysis 10Z

So the target today is going to be somewhere around San Angelo, the cold front should slow down and the regressing outflow boundary will eventually be overtaken. There is enough shear for a tornado or two.

HRRR 21Z

HRRR 21Z

May 16th 2016 – Amarillo, Texas

What a day! Ended up on a supercell near Felt Oklahoma which is basically a stones throw from New Mexico and Texas. The storm produced a beautiful stovepipe tornado on the back side!

Felt Oklahoma Tornado

Felt Oklahoma Tornado

The tornado lasted about 10-15 minutes before roping out! It was amazing to watch the tornado come out of the rain into good visibility. I can’t complain, Oklahoma is a state that always has and continues to produce funnels for me.

Felt Oklahoma Rope Tornado

Felt Oklahoma Rope Tornado

Felt Oklahoma Tornado & Parent Storm

Felt Oklahoma Tornado & Parent Storm

After the tornado, we intercepted a second growing supercell to the west which produced a funnel cloud near Perico Texas. The storm was spinning and really wrapping up but outflow from the storm which produced the earlier Felt tornado proved just too much to overcome.

Perico Texas funnel cloud

Perico Texas funnel cloud

Perico Funnel Cloud

Perico Funnel Cloud

We intercepted several more storms and we’re treated to some large hail and a wonderful light show in the evening! Great first day of action!

Masterson TX Supercell

Masterson TX Supercell

Moore County TX Storm

Moore County TX Storm

Big Hail South of Masterson TX

Big Hail South of Masterson TX

Big Hail South of Masterson TX 2

Big Hail South of Masterson TX 2

Potter County Lightning 1

Potter County Lightning 1

Potter County Lightning 2

Potter County Lightning 2

We’re now calling in a night in Amarillo.

May 16th 2016 – Elk City, Oklahoma (morning)

Quick morning analysis reveals a complicated setup, looks like the dryline is still questionable and convection from the NW may overrun closer the triple point. The current target is halfway between Elk City and Amarillo to keep a north, west and southern route open.

May 15th 2016 – Elk City, Oklahoma

Well after a long drive we’re ready and in position for the first severe weather episode. We’re spending the night in Elk City Oklahoma in anticipation of possible dryline supercell storms Monday afternoon.

I’ve uploaded this brief video discussing the potential setup.

Outside of storms I also took a few moments to capture some of the neat geography found in Western Oklahoma

Caddo County Farm

Caddo County Farm

Bird on a wire

Bird on a wire

Caddo County Hills

Caddo County Hills

Remember to visit the live link for real-time twitter updates and streaming video. Off to bed… zzzzzzz

May 26th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 10

First Storm - Big Spring, TX

Storm began to fire off a boundary early in the afternoon between Andrews and Seminole Texas while slowly drifted east-southeast. The first storm I intercepted was just south-west of Lamesa, TX. I took me a little longer to get into position since I had to drive up from Uvalde, TX nearly 6 hours away.

U.S Geologic Survey - Big Spring, TX

While taking photos I almost tripped on this stone, I look down to find it was part of the U.S Geologic Survey. Interesting.

Supercell - Big Spring, TX

As the storm approached my position it was a little messy looking but the inflow was growing and there was a lot of upward motion. The core also had this green look to it.

Inflow Feature Hidden By Rain - Big Spring, TX

Falling south and stopping just north of Big Spring, there was an interesting inflow feature, almost like a tail that was growing and being blocked by a falling rain curtain that was wrapping around.

Inflow Feature - Big Spring, TX

A couple minutes later the feature was completely obscured but the storm was really hugging the ground and the gate to gate rotation on radar was tightening up.

Supercell - Big Spring, TX Supercell - Big Spring, TX

Shifting south once again, the storm continued to morph and became this scary but colourful glob of inflow, outflow and supercell structure painted in the sky against a brown field lined with grass.

Blue Core + Tail Cloud - Big Spring, TX

A clear inflow notch was developing on radar and very visible in person underneath the semi-visible vault. By this point, the storm was beginning to pull south hard, drifting towards the town of Big Spring directly. Initially it looked like a clean miss but now the storm was really shearing off and trying hard to go south.

Storm Coming - Big Spring, TX 20140526-_E1A3444

The storm continued to head towards me and I stuck around for as many photos as I could before having to move!

Inflow Notch - Big Spring, TX Notch - Big Spring, TX

Unfortunately finding a clearing in the town of Big Spring was not easy since it sort of sits in a valley and it is a built up town. The already busy streets were also now deluged with chasers bailing south. I was able to find this view behind a tractor supply company.

Southern Flank - Big Spring, TX Inflow Feature - Big Spring, TX

Again, there was incredibly strong inflow into the notch just behind the trees in the above photo. The scud was also rising blazing fast! The storm was absolutely ready to produce a tornado except it was going to be buried in rain.

Storm Core - Big Spring, TX RFD Edge - Big Spring, TX

These shots, especially the vertical perspective look gives an idea of how abrupt the synoptic environment, or in this case meso-scale environment transformed into a storm scale environment. Also, this is a super wide angle lens, about as wide as you can get before your into a fish-eye, so despite the storm looking far away, it was actually almost on top of Jen and myself!

Very Distant Supercell Storm - Sterling, Co. TX Very Distant Supercell - Sterling, Co. TX

Eventually the original storm, we’ll call it the northern cell, just became to difficult to follow. It crossed the interstate east of Big Spring and produce a rain-wrapped tornado. I’m not a fan of rain-wrapped anything, you have to be way too close to see those tornadoes, I’m picky and tend to go for the text-book cones, but I guess beggars can’t always be choosers!

The entire boundary which gave life to the original storm, was sparking off new storms progressively farther west. I positioned myself for the slow approach of the next storm in the line.

Distant Supercell -  Sterling, Co. TX RFD Shelf - Sterling, Co. TX

As the storm drew closer, some nice forward flank and rear flank structure came into view.Wall Cloud - Sterling, Co. TX

The storm also had a persistent wall cloud.

GoPro + Ham Antenna - Sterling, Co. TX

This was my GoPro setup at the time, that way I could get video of the storm as I was running away!

Appendage - Sterling, Co. TX

Every now and then the storm would produce a funnel-like cloud but I don’t think it ever produce a true funnel cloud that I could see.

Getting Video - Sterling, Co. TX

I was shooting both tight video and wide angle stuff. I’ll eventually have to put everything together in a nice timelapse.

Supercell Storm - Tom Green Co. TX

I eventually had to re-position again as the storm began to take a bit of a dive south. There was a rest stop near Sterling City, TX which was a great spot! Silver Lining tours were also in the rest area as well as numerous locals.

I know many storm chasers try hard to keep people out of their photos, but I often like to put them in the picture. It’s realistic, and gives life to the environment as it was at the time.

The supercell structure was also awesome! You just don’t ever see stuff like this in Ontario!

Vibrant Wall Cloud - Tom Green Co. TX Vibrant Wall Cloud - Tom Green Co. TX

Did I mention the storm had a wicked wall cloud?

Eventually the storm passed just to our north, and I mean the core and all missed by 1 mile! Unfortunately for us chasers, it eventually got caught up in the outflow of the earlier storm and died, but for a while it was sure looking crazy!

Distant Lightning - Tom Green Co. TX

Later in the evening I tried to get lightning shots of yet another supercell but the road network was not all that great, nor were the vantage points or the head lights glaring at me!

Storm Approaching - Grape Creek, TX Hiding From The Storm - Grape Creek, TX

As the third storm of the day drew closer I found an overpass to park under. There was no tornado threat at the time, just hail, and I figured I would ride the storms core out with some mighty concrete protection.

There were numerous locals that began showing up shortly after I was established well off the roadway up against a vertical wall.  They however parked on the road and thought they were sheltering from a tornado!

A representative from the local fire department showed up and moved most of them along, but it’s a tough call, I know sheltering under a bridge is not the best idea, but sending people blindly out into the storm is not a great idea either.

Cloud 9 Tours Hiding At Gas Station

Several vans showed up and another tour group (Cloud 9 I think) showed up the Alon gas station and all got out to see the storm.

Hail Stones - Grape Creek, TX Thunderstorm Core - Grape Creek, TX

It was a fun core, probably not for the people trapped out in it, but it was not overly crazy, some 1-1.5 inch hail, some 50-60 MPH winds and a blaring tornado sired. The video is pretty cool!

Lightning Under A Star Filled Sky - Sterling Co. TX

Later that evening as I headed north back to Big Spring to grab one of the few remaining hotel rooms, Jen and I stopped for some lightning photos just south of the town. Against the star filled sky, the storm looked cool. I had hoped for some anvil crawlers but it seemed to all be buried deep in the storm.

Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX

The next day I went out hunting for tornado damage, and found it, just west of Big Spring near exit 189 on I-20.

Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX

The tornado whipped across this field just missing some houses and “trimming” the trees, before taking out a number of power poles.

Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TX Tornado Damage - Howard Co. TXCrews were busy repairing everything but luckily there was no major damage, from the shredded weeds, trees and damage to the odd structures hit, the tornado was probably on the order of 50-60 feet wide and a higher end EF-1 in nature.

 

 

May 25th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 9

TexasWe started the day in Hobb NM and raced south towards my target of McCamey, I figured convection would initiation along an outflow boundary from the morning convection just over the border in Texas. Around 12:30AM, the first bubbles of lift turned into a storm!

 

 

Texas Flooding

I took a less traveled road to my destination to find it was flooded! This little mishap cost me 30km! Ah well, won’t do that again! The initial storm which was targeted near Sanderson, TX went to poop after it ate too much outflow! Another healthier, outflow free storm was chugging along in Mexcio and that was my new target.

Eagle Pass Supercell

Jen and I raced south to Del Rio TX and watched the storm roll across the border from Mexio to Texas.Eagle Pass Supercell

The storm had more a linear appearance to it in reality than what the radar suggested but it was still an energized supercell with plenty of potential. Unfortunately the road network was not all that great for this storms motion!

Supercell - TX

This was an outflow feature that crossed the road in from of me. Cool, but no threat here.

Lightning Texas

Eventually I was able to get ahead of the storm but it was becoming a big mess! Instead I opted for some lightning photos.

We’re now spending the night in Uvalde TX, tomorrow it looks like a play in this general part of Texas again.




May

May 24th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 8

Supercell -Carlsbad, NM

My target today did not pan out and I was stuck between heading south into Texas or racing back way north into New Mexico. On top of that my hotel room was booked in Hobb, NM so I was stuck! Then in the evening storm formed rapidly and began to move towards Carlsbad NM. I raced over for some lightning photos.

Supercell -Carlsbad, NM Supercell -Carlsbad, NM

These dry supercell do produce nice lightning but an elevated cloud deck was sort of obscuring the view.

Supercell -Carlsbad, NM

I was able to see the base of one of the storm cells nicely though and it had some great looking structure! Too bad these storms waited soo long to initialize.Supercell -Carlsbad, NM

 

Even in New Mexico, the land of barren desert a pole, tree and other obstacle can find their way into a photo! Actually, it was hard to find good places along the roadway to stop!

May 23rd 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 7

We started the morning off in Pueblo, CO and headed south to New Mexico after a quick oil change. The km’s are really starting to get up there! We ran into a storm just north of Walsenburg, Colorado.

Rye, Colorado

Even more impressive than the storm, was the landscape in extreme Southern Colorado where you can feel the prairie grassland of the front range about to give way to the scrubby desert environment. The storms, couples with the colours and contrasts created by the mountains is beautiful.

Rye, ColoradoGreenhorn, Mountain - Colorado

I found it fitting that a UPS truck happened to go whizzing past, I guess these couriers really do deliver everywhere!

Rye, Colorado

Just outside of town, we punched the backside of the storm and found ourselves pelted with small hail. These storms were super slow moving, and hail was piling into drifts everywhere and flooding out the interstate.

Hailstorm Colorado Hail Storm Colorado

Once past the storm (which was fun to drive through) we stopped to watch it slowly roll out over the open landscape. I saw a couple chasers blast up a dirt road behind it but with the flash flooding and poor road network it was probably better to just let this one go.

Bye Bye Storm

Further down the road, it was amazing to see how the landscape transitioned, literally over the course of a few miles from alpine forest, to a dead drought stricken forest in a rain shadow and then instantly into a sprawling desert environment just over the New Mexico border. I’ll net get used to how quickly these environments change!


Colfax County, NM
Raton, NMMaxwell NM

What is nice with the downslope side of mountains/hills and other things is that you get wicked gas mileage. I was probably getting closer to 200 MPG but the computer tops out at 99, I was basically idling as gravity was doing all the work.

Good Gas MileageWhile at a service center a healthy storm literally formed out of nothing to our immediate east near Maxwell, NM. The only real problem was that the road network sucked and we could not get up under the cell.
Maxwell NM Maxwell, NM

For a while it looked to gave good potential.

Maxwell NM Maxwell NM

Every now and then a little shear pocket would develop and a small area of scud would tighten up and begin rotating into a funnel like tip and then it would loose the upward energy and that was it. After watching the storm cell for a few hours we let it go and headed into town.

20140523-_E1A2748

Again, the geography of the landscape is just fascinating to me!

20140523-_E1A2763

Here is the Maxwell storm cell from the south looking north.

Mosquero, NM

We drove through several small towns, but New Mexico is really a barren state, a little like North Dakota. The distances between civilization can be pretty big at times!
Weathered Stone Weathered Stone Weathered Stone Geographic Feature

Again, more awesome geography!

Vast OpenessThis was the dead zone, all desert, no civilization, no services for 150 miles.

Alright off to bed!

 

May 22nd 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 6

Today was one of those hard to call days! There was definitely potential in the Texas Panhandle, which was a 5 hour drive from Limon, CO but there was also good potential just outside of Denver which was only 45 minutes away.

Meteorologists refer to a phenomenon called the DCVZ, or Denver Convergence Vorticity Zone, basically it the area where the upsloping easterly winds meet the downsloping winds from the mountains along an area known as the Palmer divide.

This naturally occurring orographic phenomenon exists about 33% of the time when thunderstorms are present east of the Denver front range.

The idea was to play this 150 mile area where landspouts and other spinups are common as opposed to the deeper convection in Texas which was far less organized.
HRRR DenverSurface AnalysisI do miss a good Texas Panhandle storm, sometimes referred to as Cap Rock magic where the same upsloping easterly winds meet the New Mexico dryline in far west Texas and you get monster storms forming. Unlike Colorado however, there is no front range in Texas to so the orographic features don’t exist and that means if the upper dynamics are not present, your just going to have a big messy storm with lots of big hail.

Time, space and probabilities made my decision.
Storm Developing - Byers, COStorm Developing - Byers, CO

After getting delayed in Limon, CO (visa card scare that was nothing) I headed to Bennett, CO to catch some rapidly developing storms. Initially the weak storms looked poor then burst into action with 2.5 inch hail as a boundary surged north.

Unfortunately, this boundary also led to the storms demise as the shear vectors coupled with the 500mb flow meant the storms just became a big mess.

Flash Flooding - 15th Ave, Arapahoe County, COFlash Flooding - 15th Ave, Arapahoe County, CO

What was impressive was the flash flooding. I’m not sure why this happens, but all over the plains flash flooding is a real problem and it gets worse as the elevation goes up. I’m not sure if the soil just can’t absorb the water or the little tributaries that litter the landscape in Southern Ontario just don’t exist in the same capacity across the plains?

Whatever the case, this storm was a light sprinkle by Southern Ontario standard, some 20-30mm of rain in an hour, yet flooding was occurring across Colorado.Flash Flooding - 15th Ave & Old Victory Rd, Arapahoe County, CO

The “Turn Around Don’t Drown” slogan seems to be unheeded much of the time and it’s not just a Colorado thing, it happens everywhere. People seem to always want to test the waters which is fine when you make it across but, you never know how deep the water is and a misguided assumption can become a real problem quickly.

Flash Flooding - 15th Ave & Old Victory Rd, Arapahoe County, CO

This underpass rain bridge had torrents of water passing through yet some people still attempted to make it across! Insane! Chunks of mud, grass and others things were being washed away with the flash flooding that seemed to come out of nowhere!

NWS Denver Radar - Jefferson County, CO

Once the storms died down we made our way towards Denver, CO to see the city. On the way over we passed the Denver NWS Radar, Jen snapped this photo at 75 MPH.

Interstate 70 West - Jefferson County, CO

Our jont into Metro Denver along I-70 West during the 6PM rush hour was probably not a great idea but I did not mind some traffic slowdowns and Jen suggested we keep going west to see the mountains and I thought, why not? The GPS decided to detour us, through the downtown core! It actually turned out to be a nice scenic drive through the heart of the city. We eventually passed through the core and worked our way back onto I-70 West and into the hills!

Lookout Mountain - Golden, CO

We found ourselves at a scenic lookout called “Lookout Mountain”, it was gorgeous and these “hills” were massive, way bigger than anything in the Appalachians.

Lookout Mountain - Golden, COLookout Montain - Golden, CO

The afternoon sun was initially shrouded by cirrus clouds from the earlier convection and remnants working in from New Mexico, but eventually the even sun was able to sneak out from under the clouds and the landscape was just majestic! Snow capped peaks, sprawling pine forests and clouds creeping over the mountains, amazing.

Deer Grazing - Golden, CODeer Staring - Golden, CO

Deer were also plentiful, a little too plentiful for my liking. This herd was just grazing beside the road to the lookout pint and had no fear as I walked up to grab these photos.

Radio Towers - Golden, CO

We finally worked out way back down towards Denver to start the trip south towards New Mexico. Everything was going well until…

Road CLosure - Fatal Accident 87 SOuth Fountain Valley, CO
We ran into a fatal collision on 85/87 South in Fountain Valley, near Pikes Peak. Someone on a motorcycle collided with a stopped truck and ugh.. the rest is history. We were stuck in the backlog for an hour, so I decided to call it a night. I had Jen quickly call a hotel in Pueblo, CO which was about 35 km to our south. We had a scenic back road 11PM tour of the countryside and finally landed at the hotel around 11:35PM.

We’re calling it a night and will continue the trip through New Mexico tomorrow into Texas. I’ll let you know if we spot any UFO’s!!

May 21st 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 5

Welcome To Nebraska

 

Today we said goodbye to Nebraska. Based on the upcoming pattern we will likely be more into the southern plains in the coming days so I probably won’t be back this year.

Welcome To Colorful Colorado

But on the other hand we said hello to Colorado! In this area Kansas, Colorado, Nebraska, Wyoming, Texas and even far western Oklahoma all share very similar geography. On average your 1500 meters of more above sea level and the environment is very dry. Today however with the easterly upslope winds dew points were able to get up to around 55F/13C which might be dry by eastern standards where the terrain is only 200 – 500 metes ASL, but in the high country that’s super wet!

Denver SupercellDenver Supercell Wall Cloud & CoreWall Cloud Fingers - Bennett, Co

 

Just as the 4km WRF-NAM and 12Z HRRR had predicted, a supercell storms quickly developed around 2:30PM over top of Denver. The storm rapidly began to rotate and drift east. It quickly produce a menacing wall cloud with rain curtain wrapping from behind. There were all sorts of scud fingers reaching down, some exhibiting rotation. A tornado was reported by a spotter however no one has been able to confirm this.

Denver Supercell Wrapping - Bennett, CoNew Wall Cloud - Bennett, Co

 

As the storm continued east, the wall cloud structure rapidly began to tighten up. At one point it looked like the storm was going to produce a tornado. The gate to gate shear over the Denver radar was around 100 knots! It was cranking and slowly drifting towards Jen and I at a snails pace.

Ground Hugging Wall Cloud - Bennett, Co

The wall cloud eventually began to really hug the ground! Around the time this photos was taken, inflow was racing into the storm at around 30 mph / 48 kph. The wind was just feeding in and thunder bolts were crashing with a low roaring sound every couple seconds. I also ran into Chris Kridler and her chase partner. I’ve been a longtime fan her of her website and it was a pleasure to meet her!

Storm Cycling - Byers, CO

I repositioned to avoid getting cored (hit with the bad part of the storm) and stopped on a relatively quiet country road. Within maybe 5 – 10 minutes it was lined with chasers! Then Mark Robinson and several other chasers which I knew pulled up. I also met Jaclyn Whittal from The Weather Network in person. Talk about a chaser convergence. By this point the storm had lost much of it’s structure and was in the process of replacing it’s mesocyclone.

Doppler On Wheels - Bennett

Our meet and greet was short lived since the storm began to morph again. I raced down the road and back to a main east-west highway. By this point the road was lined with locals, chasers, tour groups, spotters and even scientific research teams. I ran into one of the DOW’s (doppler on wheels). They had 3 trucks, but now they may have 4 or 5, I’m really not sure, but either way I did see one of them and jumped out to take this photo.

Second Wall Cloud - Byers, CoIntense Rotation - Byers, Co

After grabbing my photo of the DOW I raced east and pulled over several miles from the storm. I immediately started shooting video. I knew the storm was rapidly intensifying before I even pulled over, wind gusts were buffeting my car and small hordes of tumble weed were rolling across the road towards the storm, a sure sign of strong inflow. The wall cloud now began to rapidly rotate and lower towards the ground. Again at times it appeared to really try to hug the ground. It was pretty amazing to see this type of a hybrid, almost high precipitation storm in such a dry environment.

Abandoned Homestead - U.S 71, Washington County, CoAbandoned Chicken Coop - U.S 71, Washington County, Co

Eventually the storm was eaten by a line of garbage that rolled up from the south (again, exactly as predicted by the HRRR) and our chase was done for the day. We stopped along US 71 in Washington County on our way to Limon and grabbed some photos of this cool abandoned homestead. Once in Limon we were able to grab the very last room (the honeymoon suite ironically) at the Quality Inn. Talk about chasers, I think everyone chasing the storm is in this tiny Colorado Town and we all literally overran the local bar and grill which had wonderful food. 

As for tomorrow, we’ll see, I’m looking at a Kansas play and then probably the Texas Panhandle come Friday. The weekend, looks like a classing southern plains day! Looks like 330 miles to any potential target tomorrow in Kansas and then another 350 miles to the Panhandle for Friday.

May 20th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 4

We started the day where we left off in Ogallala, NE. I don’t think I’ll ever get tired saying this towns name, Ogallala or as Jen and I have renamed it, Ogallalalala. Mansion On The Hill - Ogallala, NE We started off by doing a bit of sight seeing in the town. Our first stop after breakfast was this old Mansion on the Hill Museum. A turn of the century farm house, that was lavishly decorated by 1890’s standards. Boot Hill - Ogallala. NE Boot Hill - Ogallala, NE A little further down the road we visited Boot Hill, a cemetery filled with unknown graves. Back in the 1860’s and 1870’s cow hands, bandits, law men and others found themselves on the wrong side the gun and many were buried here in this wild-west cemetery. Store Fronts - Ogallala, NE Museum - Ogallala NE Front Street Cafe - Ogalla, NE Back in town we visited the Front Street row of business where we ate lunch, visited a museum with some interesting artifacts and planned for our up and coming storm chase! After all, we had lots of time to kill while the atmosphere baked. US 26 - Blue Creek, Garden County, NE Rock - Broadwater, NEChimney Rock What’s fascinating about Nebraska, and many other states which sit on the front range, a sort of geographic plateau where the land rises about 1000 – 1500 meters above sea level, is how diverse the geography really is. The front range suddenly rises, then flattens out into gentle rolling hills and large open plains. You can have pancake like flatness as far as the eye can see and then you’ll suddenly run into amazing hills, canyons and gorges with amazing rock formations. I first encountered this diverse landscape in the Texas Panhandle, specifically the Cap Rock, which shares the same type of geography as Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming. Even while I was actively heading towards the storms, Jen and I had to stop and take some photos of these wonderful rock structures. Grass Fire - Lisco, NE We also passed a controlled burn, but I was pretty sure it was one of those controlled burns, that was becoming a little uncontrolled if you know what I mean. Southern Supercell Wall Cloud - Scotts Bluff CountyNorthern Supercell - Scotts Bluff County   The pair of supercells crossing the border from Wyoming into Nebraska finally came into view near Scottsbluff. The southern storm has the illusion of a ground hugging wall cloud thanks to a little hill while the northern storm had a very cold and elevated look to it with tons of low level dust being kicked up. Neither storm looked all that threatening and the rotation with both storms remained broad never really tightening up. Scotts Bluff National MonumentNorthern Supercell - East Bayard, NE Chimney Rock - East Bayard, NESouthern Storm - East Bayard, NE As both storms tracked east-southeast paralleling U.S Route 92 they passed through Scotts Bluff National Monument Park. The storms, against the towering bluffs made for some impressive high contrast photos, the kind of stuff you don’t normally see! The southern cell also produced a little inflow area with low hanging scud right above the Chimney Rock Monument. Just gorgeous stuff to see! Broadwater, NE - Sunset Storm Both storms did hold on for a while but eventually as the evening took over and the airmass cooled they lost their energy. The southern cell became very linear and blew out while the northern cell, shriveled up died. The southern storm cell did produce a very pretty sunset image with a plethora of wispy rain. Outflow Dust - US 385, Morrill County, NEUp under the storm it was packing some 40 MPH winds and kicked up some dust in a field just to my east. I was looking but saw no rotation above, so I would not even call this a gustnado feature. Lightning - East Camp Clark, NEThe storm did produce a fair bit of lightning and I was able to grab this evening lightning photo. It’s not easy to shoot lightning when the daylight over powers the flashes but this one turned out! We’re now spending the night in Sidney, NE seeing as tomorrow looks like an interesting day across northeastern Colorado! Stay turned!

May 19th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 3

I’m exhausted, but it was great day! Targeted far western Nebraska, and took my time. The forecast was perfect!

Pony Trail Hut

 

Jen and I visited the first Pony Trail station and one of the last remaining structures still standing from this era when the west was still wild.

Early SettlementBadland Terrain

We also found ourselves in the Ash Hollow State Park which showcased some of the first and last remaining pioneer structures. It also helped to showcase the amazing terrain in this part of the country where vast plains give way to amazing cliffs and hills.

Supercell near Birdgeport NE

Later in the day, around 5PM the first really organized supercell began to work its way into western Nebraska from Colorado. It was a beautiful storm but high based.

Cheyenne County Supercell

A second more powerful supercell developed in Colorado and tracked into Cheyenne County, Nebraska. This was the storm of the day, it had amazing suface interaction with a wicked 55MPH RFD kicking up dust and hail to the size of gold balls and bigger.

Cheyenne County Supercell

It sure did try and produce a sustained wall cloud like structure but the low levels were still fairly dry. Needless to say, the structure was gorgeous.

Cheyenne County SupercellIt lasted well into the evening producing a wonderful lightning display! Eventually we tucked into Ogallala, NE for the night.

Tomorrow is a another day and I’ll keep you posted!

 

 

May 18th 2014 – Tornado Alley – Day 2

La Quinta, Peru IL

 

Well, it was another day of driving! We woke up in Peru, IL and started our slow journey west. I knew the storms this afternoon were a long shot, I still targeted them but after stops and eating they were definitely out of range.

Entering Iowa

 

Driving across Illinois was quick, but driving across Iowa, it felt like that state would never end. I don’t know what it is, but every single time I have driven across Iowa it has just felt like an endless drive and this was no different!

Des Moines

 

Jen grabbed this shot of Des Moines as we scooted around the city on the beltway and continues along I-80 west.

Gas Prices

 

The good thing about going west, aside from the storms, is that gas prices seem to keep falling endlessly. It was initially $3.90 a gallon in Michigan but this turned to $3.70 and eventually $3.49. Now in Nebraska, it’s down to around $3.30 a gallon, which you just can’t beat!

Iowa Bluffs

 

Another interesting tidbit about Iowa and many places in the great plains of the central interior of North America is that the land varies in diversity of plant life and geology greatly. In some areas it’s flat as a pancake, you can see for miles, in other places, you have large gently rolling hills and then of course there are those places where chasing is almost impossible!

While Iowa is certainly good chase territory, for the most part, it’s not flat, it’s pretty much rolling hills straight through, it’s not until you get to Nebraska in the west or Illinois in the east that the terrain really levels out.

Omaha, NE

 

Here’s a quick shot showing Omaha, NE as we zipped by! Jen was busy taking photos to keep herself occupied.Entering NebraskaAnd finally, the welcome to Nebraska sign.

So that’s all tonight, tomorrow it looks like it’ll be a western target again! We’ll probably be somewhere on the Colorado/Wyoming/Nebraska border chasing some big supercells in the high country!

May 17th 2014 – The Trip Down – Day 1

Well it was a long drive but I’ve managed to knock about 1200km off the trip out of 2200km total.

Tomorrow looks blah, only risk looks to be western Montana which is a little out of my current range. We’ll just have to position in Kansas for the Monday action.

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We’re currently spending the night in Peru, IL. It’s a good landing spot, a relatively large town with a Verizon store. I’ll need to make a landing there tomorrow and pickup my WiFi hotspot. Did I mention the IHOP is walking distance?

Earlier in the evening Jen had her first real taste of the truckers life. She’s a bit of a picky eater so you can image she was a little out of her element, finding a healthy salad is harder when your driving long distances and hitting truck stops than you can image!

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She was able to find some food at a buffet in Kalamazoo, MI but I’m sure it’ll become harder as we keep pushing west.

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The GPS also had a bit of a hiccup, I guess after 1000km it decided the shortest distance was a straight line, even if it meant I had to drive off road and through buildings lol.

Stay tuned, we’ll be back on the road tomorrow morning!

May 8th 2014 – Forecast Outlook

It’s that time of year when the chase trip begins to come into model range. Usually, I like to base my trip on statistics and the last 10 – 15 years have been pretty consistent with the 17th through 30th producing a plethora of severe weather and the week of the 20th through 25th just going bonkers.

Severe weather peaking over Oklahoma in mid-late May

Severe weather peaking over Oklahoma in mid-late May

The climate data for severe weather of any sort peaks during May with the most reports for all sorts of weather coming in between the 10th and 30th and the bulk of the severe weather is concentrated in the southern plains specifically affecting central Oklahoma.

Tornado weather peaking across the Texas panhandle into central Oklahoma though mid - late May.

Tornado weather peaking across the Texas panhandle into central Oklahoma though mid – late May.

Similarly, violent tornadoes are statistically prevalent through late April and all of May with the peak occurring between the 10th of May and 31st. This map, which looks at the latter half of the month shows that the peak areas are again the Texas Panhandle stretching back into central Oklahoma.

In all my years of chasing this absolutely holds true with late May never failing to producing at least three of four violent tornado outbreaks before June.

ECMWF Weekly Ensembles

A composite chart showing various times from the 18th through 22nd (Days 10-15).

A composite chart showing various times from the 18th through 22nd (Days 10-15).

The problem with using statistics is that they change over time and there is nothing concrete that says just because this has happened 100 times in the past, it’ll happen again this year. Sure, statistically the odds are highly in favour of that type of an outcome but there is never a guarantee.

So I’m always eager to see what the long range models hint at when the storm chase vacation period comes into their reach.

This year, the ECMWF operational which is in good agreement with many of it’s ensemble partners is suggest a relatively active pattern from the 18th onward which looks to reset towards the end of the forecast period (May 22nd) and re-load for another going around on the 23rd or 24th.

It’s always hard to say exactly what that troughing means, all I can say is that the pattern has a number of shortwave and long wave troughs which appear to be associated with deepening and eventually maturing low pressure systems.

How these troughs play out and what type of weather they generate is always a bit of a mystery until it actually happens or at least is within range of the short range models.

The key for me here really is that I’m looking for things I don’t want to see, specifically ridges of high pressure which cap the atmosphere, block the jet stream and provide plenty of boring blue sky. No matter how you slice a ridge, the end result is pretty much the same, so a lack of ridging in essence is far better to see than tons of toughing alone.

Right now, the forecast is very optimistic and it’s look like a very active chase is on tap! I’ll be sure to keep an eye on things as the 15th of May draws closer!

May 4th 2014 – Tornado Alley Preparations

Tornado Alley 2014

The chase is quickly approaching! Another year and another visit to the southern plains is on hand to witness some of natures most awesome displays of power.

With chase preparations stepping into high gear, I’ll be updating this website regularly.

I’ve been adding items to the “chase gear” section, slowly rebuilding sections of the old site with the new format.

Canon 5D Mark III

Canon 5D Mark III

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Sony HDR CX700V

FS-CF Pro Strapped

Canon XHA1

Left Side - Canon T4i + Rode VideoMic GO

Canon T4i/650D

Other News

I’ll be adding information about more of my gear as time permits, expanding the live chase section, adding other components such as widgets, maps and forecasts in addition to live chase-blog section.

Remember, you can also follow me on twitter @vaughanweather